Bitcoin and Fed contracts lead the financial board; Polymarket's 2026 Bitcoin price event tops it at $78.2m notional

Ranked by lifetime notional at $1 face per contract. This is the number of contracts traded since listing, each trade counted once. It is not cash paid. 'Open' means events with at least one market open at the check time; totals include the event's already-settled markets. Polymarket here means its international platform (polymarket.com), not Polymarket US. Neither venue is open to UK residents for trading. Not investment advice.

The board

1. Polymarket (intl): What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? $78.2m
2. Polymarket (intl): Fed Decision in October? $63.8m
3. Polymarket (intl): How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? $54.8m
4. Kalshi: Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 $43.2m
5. Kalshi: More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? $31.5m

Sources

1. gamma-api.polymarket.com gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027
2. gamma-api.polymarket.com gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537
3. gamma-api.polymarket.com gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026
4. api.elections.kalshi.com api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/KXBTCY-27JAN0100?with_nested_markets=true
5. api.elections.kalshi.com api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/KXLAYOFFSYINFO-26?with_nested_markets=true

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